If you want to understand how this COVID-19 virus situation goes, look to the toilet paper.

Toilet paper is to this virus what milk and bread has become to any mention of approaching snow.

For reasons I do not understand, the first response to news about the virus resulted in a panic buy of TP.

People were buying as much as they could, and we were shown videos on the internet and the cable news programs of people with shopping carts filled with nothing but toilet paper and fights in stores when a person wanted to buy one multi-pack of rolls and the person with multiple packages would not give up even one.

While some people were set for life, others were facing the possibility of having none.

I was in a store when, as the person stocking shelves came out from the storeroom with a dolly of boxes filled with toilet paper, people grabbed the boxes and ran to the check-out line.

There are self-made videos that people made of others loading their cars with boxes of the stuff, and news reports of people reselling toilet paper at exorbitant prices and people paying it.

Hoarding, panic, and fighting for toilet paper seemed to define the country’s reaction to the virus.

It seemed regardless what they went to the store for, people would grab what toilet paper they could find, and all of it if they found any.

The end result was that a type of competition began because of the fear that there would be no more toilet paper and people needed to get it before it was gone forever.

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It seemed no one was aware of the fact that toilet paper was not going away and there would be future deliveries of it to stores.

For a few days, my local grocery store had empty shelves where toilet paper used to be, but on the recent day I ran in to buy some needed groceries, the weekly stock deliveries having arrived the previous day, the shelves were filled with various brands of toilet paper.

Apparently, as a result of the panic buy of the product, people have all, if not more than the amount of toilet paper they would need, and now few people were buying it.

The curve of toilet paper purchasing has leveled off.

I live by myself and generally buy a four pack when I get to the final roll, so I was able to simply go into the nearby discount store and buy my four pack with no panic

I had bought a four pack at Dollar Tree when the purchase had been required and the panic hadn’t begun yet, and a few weeks later, after having walked by the empty shelf of a product I did not need for a while on a number of visits to get other things, I went there  yesterday and got another four pack from the now fully stocked shelves.

Like COVID-19, there was a surge, an uncontrollable surge that in this case could have been avoided if people understood that had they stuck to their usual toilet paper regimen, toilet paper would have always been there and available to everyone, even if people added one additional package each trip.

When it comes to the virus, the point is made that as we stay home, wear masks, and follow the directions of the health experts, eventually the initial out of control spread will slow down and needed hospital beds, ventilators, and other much needed medical gear and wear will be unnecessary.

The term they use is “Leveling off”.

I believe we have arrived at that point with toilet paper.